These Socioeconomic and Demographic (SED) forecasts meet the requirements under the Metropolitan Transportation Planning regulations (23 CFR 450.324(e) and provide for long-term analysis of transportation and regional development patterns.

The forecasts provide necessary data inputs to NYMTC’s travel demand model, called the New York Best Practice Model (NYBPM).

These forecasts are vital in the development of Regional Transportation Plans, transportation conformity analysis and decision-making on the use of federal transportation funds.
 

NYMTC’s forecasts are produced every four years, forecasting 30-35 years into the future. They are produced in five-year intervals for 31 counties within the following sub-regions:
 

NYMTC’s forecasts are produced every four years, forecasting 30-35 years into the future. They are produced in five-year intervals for 31 counties within the following sub-regions:

• New York City (5 counties);
• Long Island (2 counties);
• Mid-Hudson (7 counties);
• New Jersey (14 counties); and
• Connecticut (3 counties).

Models have been developed to forecast:

• Population; 
• Employment;
• Labor Force; and 
• Households.

Generally, the following steps are taken when producing forecasts:

• Collect and analyze data;
• Generate preliminary forecasts;
• Meet with Forecasting Working Group (FWG) to review forecasts and agree on forecasts;
• Holding public meetings; and
• Adopt the forecasts (NYMTC Program, Finance and Administration Committee (PFAC)).

Model Outputs

Models' outputs are

• POPULATION: Total Population, Household Population, Group Quarters Population, each by age and sex group.
• EMPLOYMENT: Total Employment, Payroll Employment, Self-Employment, each by industry.
• LABOR FORCE: Total Labor Force, Employed Labor Force, each by age and sex group.
• HOUSEHOLDS: Total Households.

2055 Forecasts The 2055 forecasts have been developed for use as data inputs for the NYBPM and the next Regional Transportation Plan. READ MORE →

2050 Forecasts Development of the 2050 SED forecasts is underway, with county level forecasts being produced for population, employment, labor force and households. READ MORE →

2040 Forecasts The 2040 population and employment regional forecasts are components of the SED Forecasts produced by NYMTC for the 2015-2040 Regional Transportation Plan. READ MORE →

TIG The TIG offers an extensive data warehouse to store, access, visualize and download planning data. GIS GIS allows spatial data to be visualized, manipulated and analyzed.

Archives Previous year forecasts READ MORE → Additional Forecasts National, regional and local forecasts READ MORE →